Yesterday, Senator Grassley, R-IA, informed the Senate that he was placing a “hold” on the Senate’s consideration of HR-3012.  Such a hold greatly complicates the ability of the Senate to pass the bill, as it is a warning that the Senator would filibuster the bill if it came to the floor.

You can read my thoughts on the bigger picture at AILA’s Leadership Blog, but it’s enough to note that for now, the bill is effectively dead unless other Senators can convince Senator Grassley to remove his hold.

Last month, we held to our prediction that EB-2 dates for China and India would advance to late 2006, perhaps January 2007, before this September. While technically correct, the State Department yesterday released its July 2011 Visa Bulletin indicating a much steeper acceleration: the India/China cutoff date has leapt to March 8, 2007 (up from this month’s October 15, 2006 date).

Another surprise found in next month’s bulletin is that the date for EB-3 Other Workers has advanced from November 8, 2003 to November 22, 2004. Recent Visa Bulletins offered no indication that such a major leap was coming. For those who remember, around this time two years ago all EB-3 advancement came to a standstill.

For the past two Bulletins, the State Department has offered some commentary explaining the acceleration in EB-2 China/India categories by attributing advancement to unused EB-1 allocation. In the May 2011 Bulletin, the State Department predicted that because increasing amounts of Chinese/Indian EB-3 applicants have been “upgrading” to EB-2, less than a month’s advancement was to be expected for either country through July. Clearly, the dates have been advancing at a much faster rate. This month’s bulletin offers no commentary explaining the sudden acceleration or predictions for future cut-off dates through the summer.

Although some may optimistically argue that the movement for China/India EB-2 is beginning to form a pattern, it is not certain whether this acceleration in priority dates will be sustained or whether dates will retrogress in the coming months. Stay tuned.

A caveat against reading too much into the NVC action: recall that it was imperfect information-sharing between USCIS and the State Department that led to the July 2007 “Visagate” debacle, and NVC likely has a small minority of the overall number of visa petitions with India and China EB priority dates in 2006 and early 2007, since so many of those beneficiaries could file for adjustment of status in July of 2007.

It’s also possible that NVC is simply trying to get cases set up with fees paid and documents submitted in case the numbers stay current for the rest of the fiscal year – but applicants would lose their filing fees if the numbers retrogress later this year.

We will have to wait for the May Visa Bulletin from the State Department, likely released by April 13 or so, for more detailed information on the State Department’s thinking.

The last pending I-485 inventory number released from USCIS said that, as of January 2011, there were about 5,000 pending I-485s for EB-2 China with priority dates earlier than January 1, 2007, and there were about 14,000 pending I-485s for EB-2 India with priority dates earlier than January 1, 2007.

So, the “extra” numbers that “spill down” to EB-2 from EB-1, plus the regular ones (about 2300 each for India and China), should get the priority dates to late 2006, and perhaps to January 2007, by September of 2011.

While that is still better than no movement at all, it is far from being current.

“[US]CIS says they have seen a decline in filings, and does not expect a change in the number use pattern. Therefore, this decline in EB-1 number use will allow me to begin having those ‘otherwise unused’ numbers drop down and be available for use in the EB-2 category. Based on current indications, that would mean that at least 12,000 additional numbers will be available to the EB-2 category. This situation will allow me to advance the India EB-2 cut-off date for May. The reason being that all ‘otherwise unused’ numbers are provided strictly in priority date order, and the India demand has the largest concentration of early dates.”

Clients whose priority dates will become current will be eligible to proceed with their adjustment of status or consular immigrant visa applications.

In the employment based third preference category for professionals and skilled workers, cut-off dates moved forward to September 22, 2002 for China and worldwide.  India’s cut-off date will remain June 22, 2001.  Mexico will also continue to have a cut-off date of July 1, 2002.

The EB-1 category for multinational managers and executives, individuals of extraordinary ability and outstanding professors will remain current. The EB-4 religious worker and EB-5 immigrant investor categories will also remain current.